Forecast discussion: A strong high pressure system gave us sunny skies in Rhode Island today, as high temperatures reached 80 degrees. With dewpoint temperatures still uncomfortable, the south shore may see some patchy fog develop. Also, we will continue to keep a watchful eye on the Pawtuxet River in Cranston. The river is still above flood stage, reaching a crest of 11 feet around 3:45 p.m. on Sunday. The flood stage for the river is actually 9.0 feet. Until the river recedes, a Flood Warning will remain in effect for Kent and Providence Counties. The river is expected to reach 10 feet by tomorrow morning.
Unfortunately, there may be some extra rainfall being added to the River by tomorrow afternoon. A warm front moving into the Mid-Atlantic region will slowly push into Southern New England tomorrow. The front will bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms by the early afternoon. As we move into the evening, we may see some heavy rain in isolated areas. The rainfall will remain over us into early Wednesday morning, as the low pressure system brings a cold front through the region. A strong high pressure ridge will then give us some sunshine on Wednesday.
However, the computer models disagree on the weather pattern for Thursday. A weak low pressure system will move over the Mid-Atlantic region. The American model believes there will be enough moisture to produce some showers for the region by the afternoon. The European model keeps the low a little more south, so we do not receive any precipitation. Right now, I will go in-between the models, and add some possible showers by Thursday afternoon. I need to see where the location of the low will be on Tuesday before I take out any precipitation from the forecast.
Any shower activity will end by early Friday morning, as a stronger high pressure ridge builds over New England. By Friday night, a weak area of low pressure may help create some isolated showers late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Otherwise, we will see another day of mostly sunny skies. By next Sunday, a new cold front will move into the Northeast U.S., bringing another round of showers by the late afternoon.
Temperatures for the week will remain pretty uniform. After temperatures are expected to reach the middle 70’s the next few days, high temperatures will raise into the upper 70’s to lower 80’s for the rest of the week. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s until next Sunday.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy skies with patchy fog and a low of 59.
Monday: Overcast with showers and possible thunderstorms developing in the early afternoon with a high of 76. Winds will come from the southeast at 7-10 mph.
Monday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a low of 62. Winds will come from the east-southeast at 7-10 mph. Some rainfall could be heavy at times.
Tuesday: Showers with periods of thunderstorms with a high of 77.
Tuesday night: Scattered showers ending after 2 a.m. with a low of 61.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 81.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy skies with a low of 57.
Thursday: Partly sunny with possible showers in the afternoon. Highs 75-78, lows 57-60.
Friday: Possible showers end after 1 a.m., with mostly sunny skies. Highs 78-81, lows 56-59.
Saturday: An early morning shower, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 79-82, lows 58-61.
Sunday: Early sunshine, followed by cloudy skies and late afternoon showers. Highs 79-82, lows 63-66.