Forecast discussion: A warm front to our south is helping to bring showers over Rhode Island at the moment. This front will continue to move northward, but where it stalls will mean the difference between seeing some sunshine tomorrow or seeing constant rain.
For this evening, we will be seeing showers increase to moderate rain. This will create problems for some small streams, and could create street flooding. The Pawtuxet River in Cranston was just coming down from its flood stage of nine feet, but computer models are forecasting it will increase to 11 feet by tomorrow afternoon. Due to the expected rainfall, a Flood Warning is in effect for northern Rhode Island, while a Flood Watch is in effect for the southern half of the state.
The computer models are agreeing that the front will move just south of the Mass Pike tomorrow afternoon, where we will be some drier air. There may be some peaks of sunshine, which could increase our temperatures into the middle 70’s. But, the sunshine will only help enhance more showers and possible thunderstorms to form. The cold front will pass to our south by tomorrow night, with a high pressure ridge building in from the west. All precipitation should end by early Wednesday morning.
We will get one day of dry weather, with temperatures increasing into the upper 70’s. By Thursday, a developing low in the Ohio River Valley will past just south of Long Island. We will see some showers from this low by the afternoon, before ending early Friday morning. We will go into the weekend with a dry forecast, although there may be a passing shower late Friday night. I am expecting partly to mostly sunny skies into early next week, thanks to a new high pressure system.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Rain, heavy at times, with isolated thunderstorms. Patchy fog will develop, especially along the coast. We will see a low of 58.
Tuesday: Showers end in the morning, with some partial sunshine. This may help enhance afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We will see a high of 72 with north-northwest winds at 6-9 mph.
Tuesday night: Scattered showers ending after 2 a.m. with a low of 58. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 5-8 mph.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with a high of 79.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy skies with a low of 54.
Thursday: Partly sunny skies with showers developing in the afternoon. We will see a high of 74.
Thursday night: Showers end after 1 a.m. and we will see a low of 56.
Friday: Possible showers/rain end in the morning, with partly sunny skies. Highs 73-76, lows 54-57.
Saturday: An early morning shower before becoming mostly sunny. Highs 76-79, lows 55-58.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-80, lows 58-61.
Monday: Partly sunny. Highs 76-79, lows 58-61.