The official hurricane season began on June 1st and wasted no time getting started. At 6pm, Wednesday June 5th, The National Hurricane Center formally named Tropical Storm Andrea in the Gulf of Mexico. It is the first of the season. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are posted for parts of Florida and can be found at the bottom of this post.
Winds and Speed
The first update included top winds of 40 mph and the center was located about 320 miles SW of Tampa, FL. Winds may increase slightly before landfall. The forward speed is a crawl to the north at 3 mph. This storm may highlight the fact that while wind speed is what allows this type of storm to get named; the rainfall and problems may spread far beyond landfall.
t is important to note the land falling tropical systems of any intensity carry a greater risk of developing tornadoes. This would be mainly near the center and to the right side of the track. In this case, that would be on the eastern half of the storm. Those are usually EF-0 or EF-1, but still enough to do damage. This will no be like the twisters that hit Oklahoma since they likely will be rain wrapped and short lived.
The intensity of this storm should bring 3-6 inches of rain with isolated spots up to 8 inches in central and northern Florida
The circulation is organizing and you can see multiple satellite animations in the video clip attached. Most of the convection is on the eastern part of the storm, which will carry most of the heavy rain over Florida and coastal areas along the track. The forecast models show high agreement that this storm will move north and inland over northern Florida.
Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are between 80F-82F, which holds enough energy for further development, but the expected landfall Thursday afternoon will limit that.
Wave heights are expected to reach over 10 feet between Cedar Key and St. George Island, FL.
Track- Eastern US
The circulation is expected to hold together as a tropical storm while staying inland through eastern North Carolina, and then skim the southern Delmarva Peninsula and head towards eastern New England. I will have a closer look at the impact on the Mid Atlantic region on my Baltimore Weather Examiner page. A look at the Watches and Warnings for Florida are at the bottom of this post.
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National Hurricane Center Advisories
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.